Global Markets Dip Amid Trade Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions

Global stocks and the U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday as investor sentiment weakened due to fragile U.S.-China trade talks, soft U.S. inflation data, and escalating Middle East tensions.

Markets initially welcomed news of a U.S.-China trade framework, which included the removal of Chinese export restrictions on rare earths and broader access for Chinese students to U.S. universities. However, with limited concrete details and uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies, investors remained cautious. President Trump praised the deal but warned that letters outlining new trade terms would soon be sent to multiple countries, adding fresh market uncertainty.

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, noted that despite the Geneva meeting, core tariffs remain largely unchanged, leaving key trade tensions unresolved.

Asian markets reacted to the uncertainty. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.3%, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.7%, and China’s blue-chip index slipped 0.37%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.74%, pulling back from recent highs.

The dollar index hit its lowest since April 22, down 9% this year, as investors moved toward safer assets. The euro climbed to a seven-week high at $1.1512, and the Japanese yen strengthened to 144.03 per dollar. A weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report, showing lower consumer price gains in May, added to pressure on the dollar and fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut by September.

Meanwhile, oil prices hovered near $70 per barrel amid fears of Middle East supply disruptions, as Iran threatened U.S. bases if nuclear talks collapse. Gold rose 0.5% to $3,370.29 on safe-haven demand.

As geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties linger, markets are likely to remain volatile ahead of next week’s Fed decision.