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The German bunds traded range-bound Thursday as markets maintained caution ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, to be unveiled today by 11:45GMT. The ECB is unlikely to make any alterations to its forward guidance during the upcoming meeting and is expected to keep the option to extend the QE horizon or scale up purchases again if the inflation outlook deteriorates
The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, fell nearly 1 basis point to 0.47 percent, the yield on 30-year note slumped nearly 2 basis points to 1.26 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded flat at -0.70 percent by 09:25GMT.
Given the recent ECB communication that indicates towards a preference for a ‘lower for longer’ scenario, the European Central Bank is expected to announce a QE extension by nine months at a rate of EUR30 billion during October 26. Following that, the ECB is expected to end its QE purchases in the fourth quarter of 2018, Danske Bank reported it is recent research report.
A larger scaling down of purchases would further ease QE implementation and higher reinvestment volumes of maturing bonds would also add to the monthly QE flows in 2018. The rate of appreciation of the effective euro has decelerated since September and is, therefore, less of a headache for the ECB now.
Inflation in the euro area is projected to remain below the central bank’s target rate in 2018. But the core inflation is expected to stay above 1 percent for the remainder of this year and the next year, which would be a significant argument in the ECB’s QE recalibration decision.
Meanwhile, the German DAX traded 0.16 percent higher at 12,971.50 by 08:45 GMT, while at 08:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index remained highly bullish at 139.23 (higher than +75 represents bullish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
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