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The RBNZ has signaled the next cycle – a tightening one – will not start until the end of 2019. That will anchor the short end, although markets will not abandon their expectations for tightening as early as mid-2018 which mean occasional spikes in the 2yr will be likely. A 2yr swap range of 2.10%-2.60% is expected. The long end will continue to follow US yields, which we expect to rise. That means the curve steepening trend should continue.
Elsewhere, we’ve already stated that Dairy prices have continued to rise for the sixth consecutive time, edging up 0.6 pct at the latest Global Dairy Auction. The last time prices fell was on March 7 when they dipped by 6.3 pct. At the previous three GDT auctions, the price index has climbed by over 3 pct each time.
NZDSEK put expired OTM, this was the last of our 2017 FX Outlook trades.
We called the direction of NZDSEK correctly, but that's scant comfort as the 5% decline in the cross since inception in November nevertheless means that the option expired marginally OTM. Although the Riksbank seems to have been won momentarily out yet again, we could foresee mounting momentum in Kiwi dollar. Hence, we advocate longs in an NZD call/SEK put, strike 6.10.
