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With FED rate hike in 2015, in serious doubt WTI has broken above its triangular congestion, which suggests there could be serious upside attached.
- However, yesterday's EIA Energy information Administration) report which showed stocks in US rose more than 3 million barrels last week, in spite of API (American petroleum Institute) report showing 1.2 million deficit, has been serious setback for WTI.
Nevertheless, price action showing, in spite of significant gap between supply and demand, which could be around 2 million barrels/day, WTI might actually move up in the short to medium term.
- Moreover, fundamentally speaking, Russia has engaged in talks with Saudi Arabia and it could open up cooperation between two oil giants in future, which is surely positive for prices. Moreover there have been plenty of warnings that lower investment makes the world more vulnerable to future supply shock.
CFTC report on future positions has also shown that hedge funds have reducing their short positions gradually in WTI.
Trade idea -
- Buy WTI at current price ($47.9/barrel) and at dips of every $1/barrel with stop around $43/barrel and target around $53.6/barrel and $55.5/barrel.
- Target $69.5-70/barrel area with larger stop loss around $37.5/barrel.
