FxWirePro: Reshuffle EURHUF call spread on low vols scenario

Hungarian MPC meeting went more or less as we had expected: the central bank reiterated that it was ready to gradually normalize monetary policy, depending on the persistence of the inflation trend – the MPC but did not communicate anything more concrete than that. In fact, the MPC left its guidance unchanged.

We recommended a 6m EURHUF 326/340 call spread in the past. The subsequent hawkish signal by the NBH took us by surprise, but we believe EURHUF at current levels is too optimistic regarding the NBH’s underlying desire to tighten policy. 

We also remain fundamentally bearishly inclined given extremely low real yields, fast deterioration in the current account deficit and the export nature of the economy. 

We thus take the opportunity to restructure the call spread into an outright call. This restructuring would allow us to benefit more directly from a potential rise in vols in the region from currently excessively low levels. The restructuring comes a 10bps cost. Courtesy: JPM

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is inching towards 4 levels (which is neutral), while hourly USD spot index was at 42 (bullish) while articulating (at 13:37 GMT). 

For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex