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FxWirePro: No trace of strength for crude ahead of inventory check, $25/bbl likely sooner or later – short rallies to remain in safe haven

The API has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products (motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulfur content), and residual fuel oil). These range of commodities characterize more than 85% of total petroleum industry, it is scheduled to report inventories in US crude, we saw -3.9M massive decline its last weekly release.

It is now expected to show a withdrawal of approximately 150 billion cubic feet for the week ending January 15. That compares with draws of 168 billion cubic feet in the prior week and a five-year average of 160 billion.

Technical Glimpse: WTI crude futures failed to find support at lower channel, after this menace slipped below 29.64 to reach out he lows of 28.21, situations have created where even short term bulls are facing tough times contemplating below fundamental reasoning but weekly technicals have still been a sell as RSI shown a convincing convergence so far with the slumping prices even though it hits oversold zone (currently RSI 14 trending at 28.3820) we cannot afford to jump into the guns as there is no other substantiation.

While %D crossover sustains on slow stochastic even below oversold trajectory, so overall intraday or for even a short term traders can smell buying opportunities for minimal profits but for another month or so we don't see any sort of strength in this commodity that can pull back from current levels.

Crude oil for delivery in March shed 52 cents on the NYME, to trade at $29.05 a barrel, while heating oil for February delivery sank 3.61% to trade at $0.8759 per gallon.

So from current levels with hedging mindset we recommend shorting mid-month futures for target towards $25. Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures and options are the world's most actively traded energy product. WTI plays an important role in managing risk in the energy sector worldwide because the contract has the most liquidity and most transparency.

If puts are overpriced relative to calls, the arbitrager would sell a naked put and offset it by buying a synthetic put. Similarly, vice versa when you think calls are getting overpriced in relation to puts.

Arbitration can also possible through box spreads where buying debit call spreads and debit put spreads for a risk-free returns. The opportunity for arbitrage in options market exists once in blue moon for individual investors as price discrepancies often appear only for a few moments.

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