FxWirePro- Gold Weekly Outlook

Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly  chart)

Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $1926.78

Kijun-Sen- $1832.75

Gold prices traded in a narrow range between $2015 and $1969 for the past three weeks. The yellow metal recovered slightly after weak US PCE data. It hits a high of $1995.05 and is currently trading around $1985.05.

 US PCE YoY March cools down to 4.6% from 4.7% in Feb.  The core PCE surged by 0.30% in Mar, in line with the estimate durable goods orders jumped 3.2% last month, well above the estimate of 0.70%. "Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 0.3%," US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023, below the estimate of 2%.   

 The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits fell by 16000 to 230000 for the week ending Apr 22nd 230000.

US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 101/100. The near-term resistance is 102.35/103.

Major economic data

May 1st, 2023 US ISM manufacturing Index  (2:00 pm GMT).

 May 3rd, 2023  US ISM services PMI (2 pm GMT)   

             FOMC statement  (6 pm GMT)

May 4th, 2023, ECB monetary policy (12:15 pm GMT)

            Unemployment benefits (12:30 pm)    

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in May increased to 14.5% from 9.50% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains and lost more than 3.5% after weak US PCE data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -60% from -108%.

  Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- bearish (positive for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $1970, a break below targets of $1955/$1935.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2020; a breach above will take it to the next level of $2050/$2070.

  It is good to buy on dips around $1950-52 with SL around $1935 for TP of $2040/$2070.