Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1897
Kijun-Sen- $1802.16
Gold prices halted its three weeks of a bullish trend on a slight improvement in market sentiment. According to Swiss authorities, UBS has reached an agreement to buy Credit Suisse for more than $ 2 billion. The yellow metal gained momentum the previous week after the Silicon valley bank collapse. Gold hit a high of $1990.85 and is currently trading around $1974.
The European Central bank has hiked rates by 50 basis points and said that it is ready to support banks if needed. US CPI rose 0.40% last month in line with the estimate, below 0.50% the previous month. The yearly CPI declined to 6% in Feb, the smallest annual gain since Sep 2021. The US Producer price index fell 0.10% for Feb, below the estimate of 0.3%. US retail sales declined by 0.40% in Feb vs, the -0.30% expected.
Major economic data for the day
Mar 21st, 2023 US Existing Home Sales (2:00 PM GMT)
Mar 22nd, 2023 US FOMC statement (6:00 pm GMT)
Mar 23rd, 2023 BOE Monetary policy statement ( 12:00 pm GMT)
US New home sales (2 pm GMT)
Mar 24th US Durable goods order (12:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index-Bullish. Minor support around 103.50/102.50. The near-term resistance is 105.20/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Mar increased to 33.6% from 0% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield pared some of its gains after a minor pullback. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to 47% from -107%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bearish (Positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1880, a break below targets of $1860/$1840.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1920 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1959/$2000.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1980 with SL around $1992 for TP of 1955/$1943.