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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1708.74
Kijun-Sen- $1806.65
Gold pared some of its gains the previous week after upbeat US CPI data. It rose 0.40% in Sep MoM, yearly CPI rose to 8.2% vs. an estimate of 8.1%.ahead of US CPI data. The minutes of Sep 20-21 showed that there might be two 75 bpbs hikes this year.US dollar index recovered above 113 and any breach above 114.55 confirms further bullishness.
The US 10-year yield remained above 4% in hopes of aggressive rate hikes. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -47 basis points from -37 bpbs.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Nov rose to 97.4% from 81.10% a week ago.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index – Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1660, a close below targets of $1650/$1618.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1680, the breach above will take it to the next level of $1700/$1720/$1740/1760/$1800. Minor bullish continuation only if it breaks $1740.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1678-80 with SL around $1700 for TP of $1615.
