FxWirePro: Euro feels heat as odds of Le Pen victory rise

The single currency is back testing waters below 1.06 against the dollar and looking to break lower as the odds of a Marine Le Pen victory in the upcoming French election rise. The first round of the French election will be held on 23rd April and the top two candidates will face each other in the second round on May 7th.

However, the latest blow to the euro is not just coming from the improved odds of a Le Pen victory but due to the rise of the euro-skeptic far-left candidate Jen-Luc Mélenchon. The latest poll conducted by Kantar Sofres show that in the first round, both Front National leader Marine Le Pen and the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron will get 24 percent of the vote. Mr. Mélenchon would secure the third position with 18 percent vote and the Republican candidate Francois Fillon will have 17 percent of the vote. We have argued that due to sharply contrasting views, Mr. Mélenchon voters unlikely to support Mr. Macron in the second round and that makes the path to the Presidency difficult for Macron.

The betting market is suggesting that the odds of a Macron victory have declined from 67 percent just two weeks ago to just 57 percent as of latest. The odds of Marine le Pen Presidency has increased from just 22 percent to 27 percent for the above mentioned period.