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• EUR/NZD dropped on Tuesday as investors shifted their focus to Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy meeting.
• Focus will be on whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps mid-2027 as the expected timing for a rate hike and on guidance from Governor Anna Breman..
• New Zealand's first female central bank chief, Anna Breman, chairs her debut meeting Wednesday; rates are expected to stay on hold, but markets will watch for hints of a hike this year.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the official cash rate at 2.25% as the economy gradually recovers from post-COVID tightening aimed at controlling inflation.
• A September hike is seen as a 70% probability while a move in October is fully priced in after inflation accelerated to 3.1% in the fourth quarter, above the 1% to 3% target band.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9706 (SMA20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9795(38.2%fib).
• Strong support is seen at 1.9565(23.6%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.9441(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.9620, with stop loss of 1.9700 and target price of 1.9550
