FxWirePro: ECB monetary policy preview

Today European Central Bank (ECB) is to provide further guidance in policy meet. Result to be announced at 12:45 GMT, followed by the press conference at 13:30 GMT. The meeting is to be held at the ECB headquarter in Frankfurt.

Current policy measures–

• Deposit facility rate at -0.40 percent
• Refinancing rate 0.00 percent
• Marginal lending facility rate at 0.25 percent
• ECB has several TLTROs in its portfolio.
• Assets can be bought at yields below the deposit rate.
• In the latest action, ECB tapered asset purchases to €15 billion and extended the program until the end of the year. ECB will wind up its asset-buying program by end 2018.

Expectation today –

• European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current policy in terms of interest rates.
• The market is looking for a guidance on future actions and a bit desperately.

What to watch out for –

• Change in inflation and growth forecast.
   
• Take on tapering or on the future path of monetary policies.
   
• The high level of NPLs in European banks, especially in Italy.
   
• The EU-Italy budget standoff, where EU rejected Italy’s budget. Recent budget increases in France, thanks to ‘yellow vest’ protests.
   
• Recent volatility on the stock markets around the world.

• Contingency plans from the Brexit fallouts.

• Whether ECB seems comfortable with the level of the Euro or does Draghi talk the currency down.

Impact –

The euro is consolidating in a range of around 600 pips (1.12-1.18) since May 2018. The focus is clearly on the European Central Bank (ECB), as the market is looking for a clear guidance.

However, faced with numerous uncertainties such as trade war, Italy vs. Brussels standoff, and as it has time till the end of the year, President Draghi is likely to dodge questions on the exact timing of the first rate hike.  The euro has recently moved down and currently trading at 1.137 against the USD.