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FxWirePro: Deploy short hedges on narrowed Aussie trade surplus

Australia's trade surplus narrowed 93 percent to AUD 0.1 billion in October of 2017 from a downwardly revised AUD 1.60 billion in the prior month and way below market expectations of AUD 1.4 billion.

It was the smallest trade surplus since April, as exports declined by 3 percent from a month earlier to AUD 31.87 billion while imports went up 2 percent to AUD 31.77 billion. Considering January to October 2017, trade surplus came in at AUD 13.30 billion, compared to an AUD 21.37 billion deficit in the same period the preceding year. 

The momentum has flipped from slightly positive to slightly negative following yesterday’s GDP disappointment and USD gains. Immediate target 0.7550 if USD gains persist.

AUDUSD medium-term perspectives: We look for AUDUSD to finish the year around 0.76, so long as markets maintain a very high probability of a Fed interest rate rise in December along with a neutral RBA outlook deep into 2018 and commodity prices remain around recent levels.

Thus, at spot reference: 0.7533, contemplating lingering bearish indications, on hedging grounds we recommend shorting near-month month futures as the underlying spot FX likely to target southwards in near run.

Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to open and maintain a short futures position.

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly AUD spot index is flashing at -152 levels (which is bearish), while hourly USD spot index was at 108 (bullish) while articulating at 08:34 GMT. For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:

http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.

FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit: 

http://www.fxwirepro.com/invest

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2018-07-18 00:47:26
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