FxWirePro: Country wise odds of EU exit

Just five years ago, the breakup of the European Union or the Eurozone was beyond investors’ imagination but now, it a hard reality everyone is faced with. Britain is likely to be the first member country to have exited the European Union, but will that be the only country? The odds in the market are saying otherwise, (we would only discuss the top odds)

• The market is pricing a 50 percent chance that Italy will exit the EU before 2025.
• The odds are at 33 percent for Greece and the Czech Republic.
• The chance is 25 percent for Netherlands.
• Despite an advance in the polls by Marine Le pen for the upcoming election, the market is pricing just about 23 percent chance of Frexit.
• The odds are little above 9 percent for Germany.

We would like to highlight, that even if the National Front leader Marine Le Pen fails to win the French Presidency, almost 35 percent of the French voters will be voting for her, which in turn is voting for an exit from the single currency area. The level of anger among the European people, over the economic and political direction of the union, is here to stay, no matter whoever wins and that is going to keep haunting the region for years to come.