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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2026.58
Kijun-Sen- $2023.35
Gold pared some of its gains as the US dollar recovered. The S&P flash US manufacturing came above estimate. While the US flash services PMI dropped to 51.30 vs. the forecast of 52.40. The yellow metal hit a low of $2018 yesterday and is currently trading around $2018.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 97.50% from 90% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 103.40/102.75. The near-term resistance is 104.25/105.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (Bullish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2010, a break below targets of $2000/$1970/$1956/$1930. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2030 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2040/$2060/ $2075//$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2000 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.
Silver-
Silver reversed its trend and lost nearly 90 cents from a minor top of $23.50. The precious metal lost its shine as the gold/silver ratio traded above 88. XAGUSD trades below 21, 55- EMA, and 200 EMA in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $22.75 and a break above confirms an intraday bullishness. A jump to $23.20/$23.60 is possible. Any violation below $22.50 targets $21.90/$21.40/$20.68.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil gained slightly after US crude inventory data. According to EIA, inventories jumped 3.514 million barrels for the week ended Feb 16, compared to a forecast of 3.9M.
Major resistance- $80/$82.50. Significant support- $74/$72.
