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FxWirePro: Avoid exaggeration in Scandis, welcome EUR/SEK correction but load up NOK/SEK longs

Dear reader, let’s not blow out of the proportion in EURSEK. Yes, the psychological mark of 10 is indeed luring factor. And yes, real interest rates in Sweden are very low. However, the economy is humming and the Riksbank is very likely to end its asset purchasing programme at year-end, which points towards a stronger krona. Of course, private debt levels in Sweden are high, but a small fall in house prices, while the economy is booming at the same time, does not mean that the scepter of a property crisis is looming.

However, in the end, a gradual normalization of the situation on the property market will contribute to the reduction of risks that everyone is calling for. Of course, Riksbank has to be very careful and can only hike interest rates very slowly so as to minimize risks for the private sector - that is exactly what it has signaled.

In other words, there is no need to run away from the SEK, even if that seems the easier solution, in particular with a view to the increasingly thinner markets towards yearend. The SEK seems to be undervalued at levels around 10 in EURSEK and welcome the correction seen yesterday afternoon caused by central bank governor Stefan Ingves not seeming concerned about the slightly weaker house prices and him not expecting a worrying collapse in prices.

Norway and Sweden are experiencing strong growth but are at different stages of their cycles: Sweden’s expansion has decelerated, whereas Norway is playing catch-up.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s housing market is probably a bigger risk than Norway’s. Real house prices have increased faster in Sweden, raising more financial stability risks and potentially a higher risk of a central bank policy mistake (the market has kept in mind the Riksbank’s dangerous tactic of ‘leaning against the wind’).

Moreover, NOK rates have delivered decent carry, whereas SEK short rates are still anchored in negative territory.

Finally, NOKSEK has likely formed a double-bottom just above parity, suggesting that the market is unwilling to go short the cross.

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