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• AUD/USD steadied around 0.7180 on Tuesday as mounting expectations of further RBA tightening underpin the pair.
• Market pricing has now firmed aggressively, implying an 87% probability of a May 5 OCR hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and resilient domestic pricing pressures..
• The near-term focus is squarely on Australia’s Q1 CPI data due on Wednesday, with consensus expectations around +4.2% y/y.
• This release is critical, as an upside surprise would significantly reinforce the case for additional RBA tightening, while a downside miss could quickly unwind recent rate-hike bets.
• Geopolitically, attention remains on the U.S. review of an Iranian proposal that defers nuclear-related issues to post-war negotiations, helping stabilize risk sentiment at the margin.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7218(23.6%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7285(Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 0.7112(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.7088(SMA 20).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.7150 with stop loss of 0.7070 and target price of 0.7210
