French consumer spending to have improved in September, GDP likely grew in Q3

France’s consumer spending is likely to have continued to improve in September. According to a Societe Generale research note, consumption is expected to have risen by about 0.7 percent sequentially, supported by a strong rebound in energy consumption. Consumption of non-energy goods has been dull lately and is likely to have grown just slightly by about 0.3 percent sequentially. This is despite a stable rise in new car registrations.

Admittedly, the outlook for the overall consumption for the third quarter seems dull. Even with the projection of a likely rise in September, the overall consumption is likely to drop 0.4 percent sequentially in the quarter, stated Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, the French economic growth is expected to have been resilient in the third quarter, the second quarter growth was downwardly revised to -0.1 percent sequentially in the final estimate from 0.0 percent. As the first quarter was solid, the first-half growth rate continued to be strong at 0.4 percent on average. The nation is likely to have avoided a technical recession in the third quarter.

“We look for GDP growth of 0.3 percent qoq driven by steady government consumption, a small contribution from investment and a boost from inventories”, added Societe Generale.

Non-energy goods consumption and net external trade are expected to have been a drag on the economic growth in the September quarter.