French Election: odds of Macron Presidency in decline

As the upcoming French election, the first round of which would be held on next Sunday, increasing becoming a four-way race as the leftist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is making big gains according to opinion polls. The latest polling by Ipsos suggests that the front-runner independent candidate Emmanuel Macron will receive 22 percent of the votes in the first round, same as the Front National leader Marine Le Pen, followed by the leftist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 20 percent and the Republican candidate Francois Fillon with 19 percent.

In the third week of March, the betting market was pricing the odd of a Macron victory at 67 percent but that has now dropped to just 52 percent. Nonetheless, he is still leading. The market is pricing the odd for Marine Le Pen at 27 percent and 20 percent for Francois Fillon. Despite recent gains in the polls, the market is pricing the odd of a Mélenchon Presidency just at 13 percent. The odds for seven other candidates remain far off the table.