Finnish exports stronger than expected in September, but likely to have remained weak in Q3

In September, Finland’s goods exports registered a small fall in September; however, they came in stronger than projected. Exports were quite weak in the September quarter. But net exports are expected to have contributed positively to the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, whereas it is likely to have negatively contributed to the year-on-year growth.

The value of goods exports in September dropped 0.6 percent year-on-year, whereas the “business as usual interval” was a drop between 3 percent and 5 percent, noted Nordea Bank in a research note. The Customs data notes that without an aeroplane delivery to Ireland worth EUR 130 million, the drop would have been 3 percent.

For the third quarter, Finnish exports are estimated to have dropped 5 percent year-on-year and over 3 percent quarter-on-quarter, said Nordea Bank. After taking export prices into account, the volume of good exports is expected to have fallen by 1.7 percent year-on-year and by 3.5 percent sequentially. Therefore, the third quarter appears weak no matter how one looks at it, stated Nordea Bank.

The volume of goods imports in the third quarter is expected to have grown 2 percent annually and dropped 5 percent sequentially. This would suggest a huge negative year-on-year growth contribution from net exports; however, a slightly positive quarter-on-quarter growth contribution, added Nordea Bank.