Final euro area HICP inflation to confirm flash at -0.1% yoy

Final euro area HICP inflation is expected to print at -0.1% yoy in September, led by significant weakness in the energy component (-8.9% yoy in September). Food and services made positive contributions to the headline adding 2bp and 4bp, respectively, while continued weakness in energy prices (Brent and gasoline prices) drove the energy component further down to -8.9% yoy in September (-7.2% yoy in August), cutting 18bp from the headline. 

Food prices increased from 1.3% yoy in August to 1.4% yoy in September. Regarding the core details, prices paid for services increased from 1.2% yoy in August to 1.3% yoy in September and non-energy industrial goods declined from 0.4% yoy to 0.3% yoy, cutting 3bp. 

"We expect euro area HICP inflation to average 0.1% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016, while the core metric should average 0.8% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016", says Societe Generale.