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Fed’s November minutes likely to solidify December rate hike expectations

The minutes of the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in which the Fed left rates unchanged will be released on Wednesday this week. At the meeting, Fed said that the case for higher rates “continued to strengthen,” and that it now only needs to see “some” further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.

Since the previous meeting US economic data comprising of labour market, GDP and retail sales have all come in strong. Many Fed officials have delivered remarks this past week, including Fed chair Janet Yellen which have helped cement expectations for a rate rise next month. November meeting minutes should help further solidify December rate hike expectations.

Federal fund futures are currently implying a 100 percent chance of a rate rise next month.  Now that a hike in December is almost priced in, markets will look for clues to the Fed’s 2017 outlook.

"Barring significant shocks, we expect the FOMC to raise rates by 25bp at its 12-13 December meeting. We expect the minutes to increase the perception that a majority of FOMC members want to hike in December; we believe the probability of a hike to be around 80%,” said BNP Paribas in a report.

FxWirePro's Hourly USD Spot Index was at 38.1666 (Neutral) at 1220 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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