BOJ Raises Interest Rate to 31-Year High as Yen Weakens 
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder Favors Bonds Over Stocks as Treasury Yields Surge 
Fed Rate Hike Threatens Housing as U.S. Growth Leans on AI, Citi Says 
RBA Hikes Interest Rate to 4.60% as Inflation Risks Rise 
BOJ Flags Import Costs and Yen Shocks as Persistent Inflation Risks 
Central Banks Could Buy 20,000 Tonnes of Gold: BofA 
Yen Sinks as BOJ Rate Hike Fails to Impress Markets 
Fed’s Hammack Says Bond Yield Surge Is Not Driven by Inflation Fears 
ECB May Stop Rate Hikes After December, Capital Economics Says 
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FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 15th April)
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 99.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 10.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 89.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 12.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 87.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 28.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 71.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 31.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 68.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 7.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 57.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have sizably tightened but still quite dovish.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 42.7 percent probability, compared to 53.5 percent last week, and 58 percent in the week before that.
