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FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 11th March)
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 91 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 10.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 89.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 16.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 83.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased.
- The market is pricing just one rate hike for 2019 and that with just 0 percent probability, compared to a 9.7 percent a week ago and 4.5 percent in the week before that, which means that the market is far from pricing a rate hike in 2019, despite Fed’s forecast of two hikes.
- However, the market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 16.1 percent probability, compared to 0 percent last week, and 12.5 percent in the week before that.
