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FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 3rd September)
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 1.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 98.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 1.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 98.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 0.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 28.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 71.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 27.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 69.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 13.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 47.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 37.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 11.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 43.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 38.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 6.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 0.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 8.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 34 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 40 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, 15.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent, 2 percent probability that rates will be at 3.00-3.25 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 98.4 percent probability, up from 96 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 71.2 percent probability compared to 66.1 percent a week ago.
- The first rate hike of 2019 is priced in June with 59.7 percent probability, instead of 57.4 percent probability just a week ago.
