Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
Goldman Sachs Delays Bank of England Rate Cut Forecast Amid Middle East Inflation Risks 
Bank of Japan Eyes April Rate Hike Despite Inflation Dip, ING Says 
ANZ and Westpac Forecast Two RBA Rate Hikes in March and May 2026 
China Holds Benchmark Loan Prime Rate Steady for Tenth Consecutive Month 
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Uncertainty 
RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.10% in Closest Vote Since Transparent Voting Began 
Global Central Banks Hold Rates Amid Iran War-Driven Energy Price Surge 
Goldman Sachs Raises ECB Rate Hike Forecast Amid Persistent Energy-Driven Inflation 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 16th July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 97.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 2.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 13.3 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 84.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 2.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 12.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 82.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 4.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 39.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 52.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 2.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 51.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have tightened for both near and far months.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 86.8 percent probability compared to 80.7 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 55.6 percent probability instead of 53.5 percent probability just a week ago.
- The market has started pricing the fourth rate hike with more than 50 percent probability again since last week.
