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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: March hike odds rise sharply after Kaplan comments

Speaking at an event with the University students in Norman Oklahoma, Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan said that the Fed should increase interest rates sooner than later in the near future so that the central bank doesn’t fall behind the curve. These comments, however, doesn’t change our FOMC dashboard since Mr. Kaplan was already been considered as the hawkish member. The latest FOMC board looks like,

Doves – Lael Brainard, William Dudley, and Neel Kashkari.

Hawks – Janet Yellen, Charles Evans, Patrick Harker, Stanley Fischer, and Robert Kaplan

Unknown – Jerome Powell

Pls. note that one of the dovish members, Daniel Tarrullo has resigned and the position is yet to be filled.

However, the wordings surely changed the market outlook on rate increases from the Fed. The Federal funds rate future is currently predicting 31 percent probability of a hike in the March meeting, up from 26 percent a day before and 23 percent two days ago.

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