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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: BofAML Joins consensus of next hike in June

The investment bank, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) has joined the consensus that the policymakers at the US Federal Reserve would hike interest rates at their June meeting, despite their misgivings about the underlying data. In a report, BofAML concluded while the underlying data do not justify a rate increase in June, Fed seems to remain committed to moving forward nonetheless. The report ends up saying that the investment bank is throwing in the towel and moving ahead with the consensus.

Recently, some of the FOMC policymakers have questioned that path of the rate hike, which some feeling as too steep. Some policymakers have called for reassessing the path of rate hikes in light of the recent data. Though BofAML has joined the consensus, it has warned saying, “While Fed officials seem willing to look past the data for the June meeting, persistent weakness will be impossible to ignore. Indeed, considerable downward surprises in the data in the next two weeks could even complicate the decision for June. Keep an eye on core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) and real personal spending on May 30th, vehicle sales on June 1st, employment report on June 2nd and both retail sales and CPI on June 14th.”

The financial market is pricing an 86 percent chance of a 25 basis points hike in June, as of today.

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