On balance, the minutes contain little information that we had not already gleaned from recent speeches by FOMC members and Chair Yellen's testimony to Congress last week.

The committee maintained a positive assessment of incoming economic data amid growing concerns over the implications of financial market disruptions.

We think that this minutes pose three thresholds for the next policy hike:

The economic numbers must show progress relative to the last quarter (Q4)

Financial markets should stabilize

The committee needs to have increased confidence over the balance of risks (uncertainty must subside).

Assessment of risks:

In the January statement, the committee seemed unusually uncertain about the balance of risks, noting that it is "closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook."

This time the minutes reproduce a common conformity that if those conditions "were to persist, [the effect would] be roughly equivalent to that from further firming in monetary policy."

Which means that this proclamation implies that the committee expects to be on hold until financial conditions improve. In the Staff Economic Outlook, Board staff downgraded its assessment of risk relative to its views at the time of the December meeting.

Economic outlook:

Consistent with Chair Yellen's tone in last week's testimony to Congress, committee members seemed confident over the near-term outlook.

Members based this confidence primarily on the recent strength of labor markets. A few members were judging that "labor market indicators tended to provide a more reliable early reading on the economy's underlying strength" than other measures of activity, including the preliminary print of Q4 GDP.

Participants viewed the consumption slowdown in Q4 as transitory and generally expected it to bounce back in Q1. The minutes also noted some concern over the slowdown in production at the end of Q4; the solid January industrial production print received today will likely lessen any concern that the slowdown marked a turning point in the manufacturing sector.

Inflation outlook:

Majority continued to look forward for inflation to return to 2% over the medium term once energy prices and those of non-energy imports stabilize.

However, a number of participants "indicated that, in light of recent developments, they viewed the outlook for inflation as somewhat more uncertain or saw the risks as being to the downside."

The Board staff maintains its long-held view that import prices should begin steadily rising later this year.

Participants pointed out that some market-based measures of longer-term inflation compensation had declined to historically low levels, which increased concerns about whether inflation expectations could be moving lower.

However, as they have done for some time, other participants pointed to the stability of survey-based measures of inflation expectations and to the stability of other indicators of the underlying" inflation rate, such as the trimmed mean measures.