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Release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's 1st February meeting showed that many members noted that “it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labour market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations”.
Most members expect a continuation of moderate expansion in economic activity and a gradual rise in inflation to target over the medium-term. While many viewed the external downside risks as having diminished, several indicated that many risks still remain, particularly those associated with U.S. dollar appreciation, financial vulnerabilities in "some foreign countries," and the still low level of the fed funds rate.
The next payrolls report will clearly be key, but we also have a stream of speeches from Fed speakers between now and the 16 March decision which will be important for shaping expectations. Markets were clearly looking for a firmer signal and were left disappointed after the release. The USD sold off and bonds rallied post the release.
"Overall, the minutes suggest the Fed feels increasingly uncomfortable with being boxed into a path of rates that the markets have determined as "gradual" and will try to keep every meeting as "live" as possible. While we don't rule out a March or May hike, should the data continue coming in relatively constructive – particularly on the inflation metric front – our baseline scenario remains for a mid-year hike and another one later on in 2017." said TD Economics in a report.
