Menu

Search

  |   Commentary

Menu

  |   Commentary

Search

FED hike aftermath series : FED projections – dovish or hawkish?

No major volatility swing after FOMC participants hiked 25 basis points in Federal funds rate as the move was well anticipated. Chair Yellen, also in her press conference, assured market of FED's gradual progression over subsequent rate hikes, however shrugging off fear arising from rising junk bond yields.

FED also released several projection materials, which included projections for GDP growth, unemployment rate and inflation.

Are the new projections more Dovish or Hawkish?

We will approach the question from two front - from recent past and from a year back.

Compared to September projections -

In terms of GDP growth is only marginally improved. It projection from 2016 GDP growth slightly improved by 2.4% from 2.3%, while projections for 2017 and 2018 is flat at 2.2% and 2%.

FED's expected unemployment curve shifted down further and by as much as 0.3% from current rate of 5% and 0.1% from prior projections. FED expects unemployment rate to be 4.7% in 2016.

PCE inflation (both core and headline) expectations are marginally down for 2016 by 0.1% to 1.6%

FED new stance is neutral from September perspective.

Compared to December, 2014 projections -

Compared to last year, FED's GDP projection is much dovish by 0.6% (average of the range), while unemployment projection is much more hawkish by 0.4%.

In terms of inflation projection FED is marginally hawkish by 0.05%.

On an average, it can be said that FED is marginally hawkish over 2016, with first hike taken care of, we expect FED to marginally hawkish on rate front too.

It is also important to note that FED is expecting PCE inflation to be 1.6% in 2016, which is 1.2% higher than 2015 forecast can be highly considered as hawkish or overblown.

  • Market Data
Close

Welcome to EconoTimes

Sign up for daily updates for the most important
stories unfolding in the global economy.