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No matter how much the FOMC group try to prepare markets for rate hikes in summer, participants are just not giving in. Last Friday, speaking at Harvard, FED chair Janet Yellen echoed several of her colleagues who warned of two to three rate hikes this year and an imminent one over next few meetings.
After Yellen’s speech Dollar roared and rate hike odds improved, only to slide back this week.
Before Yellen, market was pricing 24% odds of a hike in June and 54% odds for July and it improved to 30% and 63% respectively after Yellen’s speech. But this week it has started reversing and Dollar weakens. In the very short run, Dollar is showing very high correlation with Federal funds future, used in predicting the odds.
As of now, Market is pricing just 19% chance of a hike in June and 58% for July. Odds of a second hike in December is currently at 35%.
Market participants are really counting on British Referendum to refrain FED from hiking in June.
Dollar index is currently trading at 95.54, down -0.28% today, so far.
