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Market Roundup
•French CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, -0.3% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, -0.3% previous
•French CPI NSA (MoM) (Jul) 0.60%, 0.60% previous
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Jul) 2.10%, 2.10% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Jul) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.0% previous
•French Inflation (YoY) (Jul) 2.10%, 1.70% previous
•French French CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.1%, 2.1% forecast, 1.8% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Trade Balance (Jun) 8.6B, -2.2B forecast, -9.0B previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q2) 1,76,577.2K, 1,76,382.2K previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q2) 0.5%, 0.6% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Reserve Assets Total (Jul) 1,752.50B, 1,755.42B previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.6%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Jul) -0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jul) -0.2%, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 5.01%, 6.75% previous
•US Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, -0.3% previous
•US Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 1.6% previous
•US Capacity Utilization Rate (Jun) 82.3%, 82.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 4.2% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 3.3% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 54.4 forecast, 55.2 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 55.2 forecast, 55.4 previous
•15:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun) -0.2% previous
•15:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Aug) 55.0 forecast, 54.8 previous
•16:30 US US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 5.8% forecast, 5.8% previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 454 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 588 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors pared back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The U.S. Producer Price Index remained unchanged in July, below forecasts for a 0.2% increase, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could keep rates on hold at its next meeting.The data followed Wednesday’s consumer inflation report, which showed U.S. consumer prices rising 3.4% year-on-year in July, in line with expectations. Together, the softer inflation readings reduced pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy and weighed on the dollar, supporting EUR/USD.Markets are now pricing a significantly lower probability of a September Fed rate hike, strengthening the euro’s near-term outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1574(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625(June 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1477(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained against the U.S. dollar on Friday as easing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on the greenback. U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, below expectations for a 0.2% increase, reinforcing views that inflationary pressures remain contained. Markets now see around a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from about 55% a week earlier.The weaker U.S. inflation data provided support for sterling, while stronger-than-expected UK economic growth also helped the pound. Separately, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz remained in focus as Washington and Tehran continued to disagree over efforts to reopen the strategically important shipping route, keeping geopolitical and oil-price risks elevated .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3612(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3503(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3422(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday as softer U.S. economic data weighed on the greenback, providing modest support to AUD/USD. U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, while annual PPI inflation slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% in June, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in September. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.2% gain in June, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Friday, adding further pressure on the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7094(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7104(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7006 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6975(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday traders to wager another round of official buying would be needed to stem the rot. Japan could conduct further joint yen intervention “at any time” and signal faster-than-expected rate hikes to curb yen weakness, former top currency diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa told Reuters. Markets are already pricing earlier and further BoJ rate hikes after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Japan to back currency intervention with stronger policies and fundamentals. The yen has given back about half of its gains from late-July and early-August intervention, weakening around 1% this week to 159.43 per dollar. It was near 164 before the intervention, with traders viewing 160 as a potential trigger for fresh official action. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.82 (Aug 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.49(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.50(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Friday and were set to end a four-week winning streak, as rising oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions outweighed support from resilient corporate earnings.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.85 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold pulled back from a more than two-month high, as investors booked profits following a rally fuelled by softer U.S. inflation data and fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Spot gold was little changed at $4,351.45 an ounce by 1113 GMT after the contract fell 1.3% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4,407.70 per ounce.
Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for weekly gains as the United States threatened to maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East.
Brent futures were up 25 cents, or 0.29%, to $87.32 a barrel at 1205 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6%, to $81.74 a barrel.
