Market Roundup
•French Aug CPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•French Aug HICP (YoY) 6.6%, 6.5% forecast, 6.8% previous
•French Aug HICP (MoM) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Jul Trade Balance -34.0B,-20.0B forecast, -24.6B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) 13.1% previous
• 12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) 8.8% previous
• 12:30 US Aug Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.7% previous
• 12:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) -1.2% forecast, -3.3% previous
• 12:30 US Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
• 12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) -1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous
• 12:30 US Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 12:30 US Sep Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 2.8 forecast, 6.2 previous
• 12:30 US Sep Philly Fed Employment 24.1 previous
• 12:30 US Sep NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -13.00 forecast, -31.30 previous
• 12:30 US Aug Retail Sales (YoY) 10.28% previous
• 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 226K forecast, 222K previous
• 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,475K forecast, 1,473K previous
• 12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 233.00K previous
•13:15 US Aug Capacity Utilization Rate 80.3% forecast, 80.3% previous
•13:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•13:15 US Aug Industrial Production (YoY) 3.90% previous
•14:00 US Jul Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.4% previous
•14:00 US Jul Business Inventories (MoM) 0.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 73B forecast, 54B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: Euro was little changed against dollar on Thursday as the U.S. dollar held near recent peaks after traders increased bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will become even more aggressive next week in its battle to curb inflation. The U.S. dollar index USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up 0.255% at 109.88, not far off its two-decade peak of 110.79.The euro was again back below parity against the dollar. It was down 0.15% at $0.9964 and not too far from a 20-year low of $0.9864 hit last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0001(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0100(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9956 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9882(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Thursday, hovering near a 35-year low touched last week against the greenback as investors fret about the economic outlook and continue to favour the U.S. currency. Sterling has been one of the worst performing major currencies in 2022, hit by expectations of a long recession, stubbornly high inflation and political instability. New Prime Minister Liz Truss's plans to fund a mammoth energy support package by increasing borrowing have added to investor concerns about the long-term outlook for the British economy. By 0744 GMT, the pound was down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.1524, just above last week's 35-year low of $1.1407. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1567(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1747(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1452(23.6%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.1394 (Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar initially dipped against the Swiss franc on Thursday but recovered ground as increased prospects of more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve supported the dollar. The dollar index held near a two-decade peak scaled last week, as a surprise rise in U.S. August inflation boosted bets for an even more aggressive Fed monetary policy. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 37% chance that the U.S. central bank will hike rates by 100 basis points at its policy meeting next week. Traders will be watching U.S. retail sales and industrial production data later in the day for further direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9627(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9667 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9576 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9499 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Thursday as dollar was supported by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to tighten policy aggressively as it tries to curb inflation, while the yen faltered after jumping sharply the day before. The dollar was up 0.28% against the yen at 143.58 , having fallen 1% on Wednesday on news that the Bank of Japan had checked on exchange rates with banks a possible preparation for yen buying. Traders will be watching U.S. retail sales and industrial production data due later in the day for further cues on US economy. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.70(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.63(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.80(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.44(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Thursday, lifted by Spanish lenders on a report that Madrid could modify a bank tax, while markets also showed some signs of recovery from a sharp selloff triggered by bets of aggressive interest rate hikes globally.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.71 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil fell more than 1% on Thursday as expectations of weaker demand and a strong U.S. dollar ahead of a potentially large interest rate increase outweighed supply concerns.
Brent crude was down $1.38, or 1.5%, to $92.72 a barrel at 1211 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.17, or 1.3%, to $87.31.
Gold prices fell to a near two-month low on Thursday, trading below the $1,700 mark once again, as increased prospects of more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve continue to weigh.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,685.79 per ounce by 1209 GMT, after touching its lowest since July 21. U.S. gold futures were down 0.8% to $1,694.80.
