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  |   Market Roundups


Europe Roundup: Sterling knocked back by bond rout, European shares drop, Gold down 1.4% for the week, Oil drops on dollar strength and OPEC+ supply expectations-February 26th,2021

Market Roundup

• Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q4) -1.6%,-2.1%forecast, -1.6% previous

• Swiss   GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3%,0.1% forecast, 7.2% previous

•Sweden Jan Retail Sales (MoM)  3.4%,-4.9% previous

•Sweden Jan Trade Balance  5.20B, 2.70B previous

•Portuguese GDP (YoY) (Q4) -6.1% previous

•Italian Jan Trade Balance Non-EU   1.71B, 7.91B previous

•France Jobseekers Total 3,553.7K, 3,586.8K previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•13:30 Canada Jan RMPI (YoY)  -0.7% previous

•13:30 Canada Jan IPPI (YoY)  1.8% previous

•13:30 Canada Jan RMPI (MoM)  3.5% previous

•13:30 US Jan Personal Income (MoM)  9.5% forecast, 0.6% previous

•13:30 US Jan Real Personal Consumption (MoM)  -0.6% previous

•13:30 US Jan Personal Spending (MoM)  2.5% forecast ,-0.2% previous

•13:30 US Jan PCE price index (MoM)  0.4% previous

•13:30 US Jan PCE Price index (YoY)  1.3 previous

•13:30 US Jan Core PCE Price Index (MoM)  0.2% forecast , 0.3% previous

•13:30 US Jan Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 1.4% forecast , 1.5% previous

•13:30 US Jan Retail Inventories Ex Auto  1.2% previous

•14:45 US Feb Chicago PMI  61.1 forecast , 63.8 previous

•15:00 US Michigan Inflation Expectations  3.3% forecast , 3.0% previous

•15:00 US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations   2.70% forecast , 2.70% previous

•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment  76.5, 79.0                previous

•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations                 69.8 forecast , 74.0 previous

•16:00 Canada Dec Budget Balance (YoY)  -232.02B previous

•16:00 Canada  Budget Balance   -15.40B previous

•17 :00 US Jan Dallas Fed PCE  1.90% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•No significant events


EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as rising inflation expectations triggered a selloff in euro . The rise in bond yields, spurred on by fiscal stimulus hopes in the United States and a post-pandemic economic rebound that could fuel inflation, has spilled over into the euro area. Policymakers rushed to dispel fears that they would tighten policy any time soon   the European Central Bank executive board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated on Friday that changes in nominal interest rates had to be monitored closely. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2151(55DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2187(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2106(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2031 (38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling fell against a stronger dollar on Friday, retreating from a three-year high touched earlier this week, as a rout in global bond markets sent yields flying and hurt the pound, while the Bank of England warned of inflation risks. Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane warned on Friday of a risk that inflation will prove difficult to keep under control as the economy recovers from the pandemic.After rising above $1.42 for the first time in three years earlier this week, the pound fell to $1.3890 at 1059 GMT, its lowest since Feb. 18.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3953 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4059(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3877 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards at 1.3792 (61.8%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar edged lower against the Swiss franc on Friday as dovish testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell bolstered concerns about rising inflation. The Federal Reserve's Powell reiterated on Wednesday that U.S. interest rates will remain low and the Fed will keep buying bonds to support the U.S. economy. The Fed's commitment to low rates has some investors worried that inflation could spike on passage of further fiscal stimulus. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9089(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9100(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9051(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9020 (50%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as steep rise in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields boosted dollar across the board. U.S. Treasury yields vaulted to their highest since the pandemic began on expectations of a strong economic expansion and related inflation. The bond sell-off accelerated after a disappointing auction of seven-year notes at midday. The dollar index rose 0.173%, lifting off a seven-week low while the safe-haven Japanese yen, which tends to underperform when global growth improves, weakened 0.06% versus the greenback at 106.28 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 106.43(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.06 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 105.77 (23.6%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks fell on Friday as investors booked profits in high-flying technology shares due to concerns over rising inflation and interest rates on the back of a jump in bond yields.

At (GMT 12: 50),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.74percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.11 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices fell to their lowest in eight months on Friday, and were headed for a second straight weekly and monthly decline as brighter economic outlook and inflation fears propped up U.S. Treasury yields.

 Spot gold eased 0.1% to $1,767.81 per ounce by 0715 GMT, having earlier fallen to its lowest since June 26 at $1,755.45.

Oil prices fell on Friday as bond price rout led to gains in the U.S. dollar while crude supply is expected to rise in response to prices climbing above pre-pandemic levels.

Brent crude futures for April, which expire on Friday, fell 99 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.89 a barrel by 1203 GMT. The more actively traded May contract slipped by $1.19 to $64.92.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped $1.27, or 2%, to $62.26.

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