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Europe Roundup: Sterling gains on upbeat economic data, dollar index hits 2-week lows on U.S. tax doubts, European shares set for weekly losses - Friday, November 10th, 2017

Market Roundup

  • United Kingdom Sep goods trade balance GBP increase to -11.253 bln GBP (forecast -12.8 bln GBP) vs previous -12.35 bln GBP (revised from -14.25 bln GBP)
     
  • United Kingdom Sep goods trade bal. Non-eu increase to -2.982 bln GBP vs previous -4.186 bln GBP (revised from -5.84 bln GBP)
     
  • United Kingdom Sep manufacturing output yy decrease to 2.7 % (forecast 2.4 %) vs previous 2.8 %
     
  • United Kingdom Sep manufacturing output mm increase to 0.7 % (forecast 0.3 %) vs previous 0.4 %
     
  • United Kingdom Sep industrial output yy increase to 2.5 % (forecast 1.9 %) vs previous 1.8 % (revised from 1.6 %)
     
  • United Kingdom Sep industrial output mm increase to 0.7 % (forecast 0.3 %) vs previous 0.3 % (revised from 0.2 %)
     
  • United Kingdom Sep construction o/p volume yy decrease to 1.1 % (forecast 2.2 %) vs previous 3.9 % (revised from 3.5 %)
     
  • United Kingdom Sep construction o/p volume mm decrease to -1.6 % (forecast -0.3 %) vs previous 0.8 % (revised from 0.6 %)
     
  • Italy Sep industrial output yy wda decrease to 2.4 % (forecast 4.8 %) vs previous 5.8 % (revised from 5.7 %)
     
  • Italy Sep industrial output mm sa decrease to -1.3 % (forecast -0.3 %) vs previous 1.2 %
     
  • Brazil Oct IPCA inflation index yy increase to 2.70 % (forecast 2.75 %) vs previous 2.54 %

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0800 ET/1300 GMT) The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will report Britain's GDP estimate in the three months through October. The indicator rose 0.4 percent in the previous month.
     
  • (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment index stood unchanged at 100.7 in November.
     
  • (1200 ET/1700 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count. 
     
  • (0900 ET/1400 GMT) Mexico is likely to report that industrial output dropped 0.6 percent in September, following a 0.3 percent rise in August.

Key Events Ahead

No Significant Event Scheduled

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index slumped to a 2-week low as investors were disappointed that the U.S. tax bill may be delayed until 2019. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded flat at 94.49, having touched a high of 95.15 on Tuesday, its highest since Oct. 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -151.76 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro rose to a 1-week high following the comments from the ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny, noting that the ECB should end QE after September if the economy allows. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1653, having touched a high of 1.1662; its highest since Nov. 3. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 100.66 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1676 (61.8% retracement of 1.1837 and 1.1674), a break above targets 1.1707 (50.0% retracement). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1608, a break below could drag it lower 1.1580 (Nov. 6 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar extended losses for the third straight session on signs that U.S. tax reforms could be delayed after Senate Republicans unveiled a plan that differed significantly from the House of Representatives' version. The major was trading 0.1 percent lower at 113.37, having hit a low of 113.09 the prior day, its lowest since Oct. 31. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 33.64 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 113.81 (5-DMA), a break above targets 114.40. On the downside, support is seen at 113.10, a break below could take it near 112.80.

GBP/USD: Sterling rose, extending previous session's rebound after data showed British industrial output increased in September at the fastest pace this year and the goods trade deficit improved. The economy's industrial and manufacturing output jumped by 0.7 percent in September, the fastest growth for each sector since December last year. While goods trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed by more than expected to 11.253 billion pounds in September from 12.350 billion pounds. Sterling traded 0.1 percent higher at 1.3153, having hit a low of 1.3039 last week, its lowest since Oct. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -65.64 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3183 (21-DMA), a break above could take it near 1.3227. On the downside, support is seen at 1.3108 (Nov. 7 Low), a break below targets 1.3078. Against the euro, the pound was trading flat at 88.58 pence, having hit a high of 87.91 pence on Tuesday, its lowest since Nov. 2.

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc gained, having hit a 2-week high in the previous session, as the greenback eased amid uncertainty over U.S. tax reforms. The major trades 0.1 percent down at 0.9931, having touched a high of 1.0037 last month, it’s highest since May. 12. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 126.42 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. The near-term support is around 0.9908 (20- day MA) and any break below will drag the pair to next level till 0.98948 (23.6% fibo and trend line support)/0.98550. The major resistance is around 1.0040 and any break above will take it to next level till 1.0100/1.0174.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased after rising for two consecutive sessions, after the country's central bank downgraded forecasts for inflation and growth, signalling that interest rates will remain steady. The Aussie trades 0.1 percent down at 0.7668, having hit a low of 0.7638 on Tuesday; it’s lowest since Oct. 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -25.02 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate support is seen at 0.7638 (Nov. 7 Low), a break below targets 0.7600. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7725 (61.8% retracement of 0.7883 and 0.7625), a break above could take it near 0.7755 (50% retracement).

Equities Recap

European shares declined and were set for their worst week in three months as a slowdown in earnings growth triggered profit-taking, while the greenback slumped to a 2-week low after U.S. Republican senators said they wanted to cut the corporate tax rate in 2019, later than the House's proposed schedule of 2018.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index edged down 0.4 percent to 388.70 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index fell 0.3 percent to 1,530.56 points.

Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.3 percent lower at 7,460.01 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 eased 0.3 percent to 20,009.04 points.

Germany's DAX fell 0.3 percent at 13,139.91 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.5 percent down at 5,383.66 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices rose towards 2-year peak hit earlier in the week, supported by ongoing supply cuts and strong demand which have resulted in a tightening market. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.6 percent up at $64.18 per barrel by 1010 GMT, having hit a high of $64.62 on Tuesday, its highest since June 2015. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.4 percent up at $57.23 a barrel, after rising as high as $57.67 on Tuesday, its highest since Jun. 2015.

Gold prices steadied near a three-week high touched in the previous session and was on track for the first weekly rise in four weeks, supported by uncertainty over U.S. tax reforms. Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $1,284.15 per ounce as of 1014 GMT, having touched its highest since Oct. 20 at $1,288.31 an ounce on Thursday and was headed for a gain of more than 1 percent for the week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.1 percent at $1,285.80.

Treasuries Recap

The U.S. Treasuries plummeted sharply despite worries over the country’s delayed tax reform plan until at least 2019. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury jumped nearly 5 basis points to 2.37 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also climbed 6 basis points to 2.86 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note traded nearly 2 basis points higher at 1.65 percent.

The UK gilts slumped after the country’s industrial as well as manufacturing production beat market expectations, coming in at 0.7% m/m each for September. The UK 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, jumped 3-1/2 basis points to 1.30 percent, the yield on 30-year note also surged 3-1/2 basis points to at 1.86 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly 2 basis points higher at 0.47 percent.

The German bunds fell amid a silent trading session that witnessed data of least economic significance. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, rose 1 basis point to 0.33 percent, the yield on 30-year note surged 1-1/2 basis points to 1.28 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year traded tad higher at -0.74 percent.

The New Zealand government bonds gained at the time of closing after electronic card retail sales data for October came weaker than market expectations. At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1/2 basis point to 2.95 percent, the yield on the 20-year note also slid 1/2 basis point to 3.48 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year ended 1-1/2 basis points lower at 2.06 percent.

The Japanese bonds traded mixed following the volatile benchmark stock index Nikkei.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1/2 basis points to 0.034 percent, the yield on long-term 40-year dipped 1-1/2 basis points to 0.951 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year up over 1/2 basis point to -0.186 percent.

The Australian short-term bond yields slumped after RBA signalled rates on hold as growth drags. The short-term 2-year Treasury note yields, which is most sensitive to interest-rate moves, fell over 1 basis point to 1.186 percent, but the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1 basis point to 2.623 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year note up 1 basis point to 3.397 percent.

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November 24 15:30 UTC Released

USECRI Weekly Index*

Actual

145.6 %

Forecast

Previous

145.6 %

November 24 14:45 UTC Released

US1st Half-Mth Infl YY*

Actual

54.6 %

Forecast

Previous

54.6 %

November 27 09:00 UTC 28492849m

ITExport Prices*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

111 %

November 27 09:00 UTC 28492849m

ITImport Prices*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

116.1 %

November 27 14:00 UTC 31493149m

MXTrade Balance, $*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1.886 Bln USD

November 27 14:00 UTC 31493149m

MXTrade Balance SA*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1.559 Bln USD

November 27 15:30 UTC 32393239m

USDallas Fed mfg bus index

Actual

Forecast

Previous

27.6

November 27 21:00 UTC 35693569m

KRBOK Manufacturing BSI*

Actual

Forecast

Previous

87 Bln BRL

November 28 00:00 UTC 37493749m

BRCentral Govt Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-22.725 Bln BRL

November 28 07:00 UTC 41694169m

DEGDP Growth QQ* Advance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

10.7 %

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