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Europe Roundup: Sterling gains against weaker dollar , European shares rises, Gold firms, Oil surges above $1 but on course for second weekly declined on recession fears-June 24th,2022

Market Roundup

•UK May Retail Sales (MoM)-0.5%,-0.7% forecast,1.4% previous

•UK May Core Retail Sales (YoY)  -5.7%, -5.1% forecast, -6.1% previous

•UK May Core Retail Sales (MoM)-0.7%  ,-1.0% forecast, 1.4% previous

•UK May Retail Sales (YoY)  -4.7%,-4.5% forecast,-4.9% previous

•Italian Jun Consumer Confidence 98.3,102.5 forecast,102.7 previous

•German Jun Current Assessment 99.3,99.1 forecast, 99.5 previous

•German Jun  Ifo Business Climate Index 92.3,92.9 forecast,93.0 previous

•German Jun Business Expectations 85.8,87.4 forecast, 86.9 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•13:00 EU Jun Belgium NBB Business Climate 1.8 previous

•14:00 US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 55.4 previous

•14:00 US New May Home Sales (MoM)  -16.6% previous

•14:00 US Jun Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations  3.30% previous

•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 46.8 previous

•14:00 US May New Home Sales 588K forecast, 591K previous

•14:00 US Jun Michigan Inflation Expectations 5.4% previous

•14:00 US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment  50.2 forecast,50.2 previous

•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 740 previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 12:30  UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks

•13:45   UK MPC Member Haskel Speaks              

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as fears that aggressive monetary policy tightening could tip the global economy into recession weighed on dollar. By 10:57 GMT, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was modestly lower at 104.22. The euro climbed 0.24% to 1.0542 against the dollar. On the data front, German business morale fell more than expected in June but a recession was not yet in sight despite rising energy prices and the threat of gas shortages, a survey showed on Friday.The Ifo institute said its business climax index dropped to 92.3 following a reading of 93.0 in May  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0541(14DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0595(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0492(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0447(June 17th low).

GBP/USD: Sterling edged up on Friday as a weaker greenback and  slightly better-than-expected retail data  supported sterling. Data on Friday showed retail sales volumes in May fell by 0.5% on the month, a slightly smaller decline than the 0.7% drop expected by economists.Sterling was not particularly affected by the news that Johnson's Conservatives had lost two seats in Parliament, a  blow to the ruling party that led to the party leader's resignation. By 09:50 GMT, the pound rose 0.36% against the dollar at $1.2309. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2311(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2393 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2222(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2267(June 22nd low).

 USD/CHF: The dollar  dipped against the Swiss franc on Friday  as investors continued to assess the path for Federal Reserve policy and whether aggressive rate hikes would trigger a recession. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Thursday that she supports 50 basis point hikes for the next few meetings after July's. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his second day of Congressional testimony, stressed the central bank's  unconditional  commitment to taming inflation, even amid risks to growth. At ( GMT 10:57),greenback was  trading lower 0.31% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9571. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9631 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9658(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9554(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9457(Lower BB).

 USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Friday as traders dialled down bets on where interest rates might peak and brought forward the timing of rate cuts to counter a possible recession. Markets have become increasingly concerned that the Fed’s commitment to quelling red-hot inflation will spur a recession. The battered yen has steadied this week and drew a little support on Friday from Japanese inflation topping the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second straight month, putting more pressure on its ultra-easy policy stance. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.73 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.56(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.50(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.95(50%fib).

Equities Recap

Utilities and healthcare stocks on Friday helped European equities  to recover from 2022 lows, as investors pivoted to safer bets amid growing worries that tighter monetary policies and rising inflation can cause a global economic recession.

At (GMT 10:44),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.26 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.72  percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.79    percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold rallied on Friday as the dollar declined and economic worries mounted, but gold's ongoing struggle with expectations of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve kept it on track for a weekly decline.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,826.20 per ounce by 0914 GMT, after earlier touching a one-week low of $1,820.30. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,827.90.

Oil rose  more than 1$  on Friday on tight supply, although crude headed for a second weekly decline amid fears that rising interest rates could push the global economy into recession.

Brent crude was up $1.42, or 1.3%, at $111.47 a barrel by 0952 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.29, or 1.2%, to $105.56. Both benchmarks were heading for a second weekly decline.


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