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Market Roundup
•HCOB France Services PMI (Aug) 48.4, 49.4 forecast, 49 previous
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.5, 50.1 forecast, 49.8 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Aug) 48.8, 49.5 forecast, 49.4 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.1, 52.1 forecast, 52.2 previous
• HCOB Germany Services PMI (Aug) 48.5, 50.1 forecast, 49.8 previous
• HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Aug) 51.0, 51.3 forecast, 51.3 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.8, 51.8 forecast, 51.9 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Aug) 51.7, 51.5 forecast, 51.7 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Aug) 52.1, 51.7 forecast, 52.0 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 52.5, 51.6 forecast, 52.2 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 52.8, 51.8 forecast, 52.1 previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.5, 51.6 forecast, 51.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.4% forecast, 1.0% previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 54.0 forecast, 53.9 previous
•15:00 US S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) 53.9 forecast, 54.6 previous
•15:00 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug) 54.5 previous
•15:30 Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Aug) -16.0 forecast, -15.9 previous
•15:30 Canada BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q2) 1.0 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 455 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Aug) 593 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as stronger than expected Eurozone PMI data supported euro. Euro zone business activity is growing at its fastest pace this year thanks to stronger new orders, particularly in manufacturing, and renewed export growth, according to business surveys which also showed easing price pressures. Overall, the S&P Global flash PMI surveys for August released on Friday suggested the 21-country economic bloc has remained resilient this quarter despite disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, after expanding 0.4% in the second quarter.S&P Global's Flash Euro zone Composite PMI Output Index reached its highest since November this month, edging up to 52.1 from 52.0 in July, beating a Reuters poll forecast of 51.7. Readings above 50 indicate growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1721(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1748(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1678(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound firmed against dollar as investors assessed mixed economic data on Friday against a backdrop of prolonged Middle East tensions that have raised inflation fears. British retail sales fell back as expected in July after a surge in June when hot weather boosted demand for fans and air conditioners, while supermarkets offered promotions alongside the men's soccer World Cup, official figures showed.Separately, Britain's services sector, the engine of its economy, perked up unexpectedly this month, according to a survey, that added to signs of resilience despite the conflict in the Middle East.The Bank of England is widely expected to hold interest rates next month but traders are pricing in at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3682(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3716(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3624(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3531(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed to an 11-week high on Friday, supported by renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar and improving expectations for Australia’s economic outlook.The U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback plan failed to fully reassure bond markets, keeping the dollar under pressure and providing additional support to the Australian currency.Meanwhile, Australia’s August flash PMI data showed that private-sector activity continued to expand. Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansion territory at 52.0, while services PMI eased to 52.9 from 53.6 in July. Market attention will now turn to the RBA’s August meeting minutes on August 25, followed by Australia’s July CPI report on August 26. The minutes could offer further clues on policymakers’ assessment of inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7178(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7201(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7093 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07054(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday Yen firmed after hotter than expected inflation data in Japan. The core consumer price index, which includes energy-related items but excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 1.8% in July from the same month a year earlier, matching a median forecast.It followed a 1.6% rise in June and remained below the BOJ's 2% target for a seventh successive month, due largely to the effect of government subsidies aimed at curbing fuel costs.The data will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinise at its next policy meeting on September 17 and 18, when it is widely expected to raise its key rate to 1.25% from 1%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.20 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.67(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.41(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.66 (Aug 7th low).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Friday, supported by rising gold prices, but remained on course for a weekly decline as investors weighed ongoing stress in global bond markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0. 13percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged lower on Friday but remained on track for a second straight weekly gain as the U.S. threatened tougher sanctions on Iran, while ongoing disruptions to Middle East oil supplies kept prices supported.
Brent crude futures fell 50 cents, or 0.53%, to $93.28 a barrel by 0949 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 44 cents, or 0.51%, to $86.39.
Gold was on track for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, reaching a more than three-month high and breaking above its 200-day moving average, supported by a weaker dollar and the U.S. Treasury’s surprise liquidity support announcement earlier this week.
Spot gold climbed 1.5% at $4,587.23 per ounce by 1101 GMT, having hit $4,601.29 its highest since May 15 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 1.6% to $4,645.00.
