America’s Roundup: Dollar eases after flat PPI, Gold retreats, Wall Street ends higher, Oil settles down 2%

Market Roundup

• US PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous.

•US Initial Jobless Claims 209K, 202K forecast, 200K previous

•US Core PPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous

•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,777K, 1,800K forecast, 1,799K previous

•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.1% previous

•US PPI (YoY) (Jul) 4.7%, 4.9% forecast, 5.5% previous

•US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Jul) 4.7%, 5.0% previous

•US Core PPI (YoY) (Jul) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.7% previous

•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 199.00K, 199.00K previous

•US Natural Gas Storage 36B, 31B forecast, 33B previous

Looking Economic Data (GMT) 

• 23:30 New Zealand  Business NZ PMI  (Jul) 59.7 forecast, 23:45 previous

• 23:30 New Zealand  Permanent/Long-Term Migration  (Jun) 1,860 previous

•23:45 New Zealand  External Migration & Visitors  (Jun) 6.70% previous

•23:45 New Zealand  Visitor Arrivals (MoM)  -2.4% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•No Data Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro edged higher   on Thursday   after data showed producer prices were unchanged in July, coming after Wednesday’s consumer price inflation report that showed that U.S. consumer prices barely increased last month. The flat reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1% drop in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding 0.2%.The soft data led traders to further pare back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Fed funds futures now show a 31% probability of a September hike, down from 40% on Wednesday and 55% a week earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1565(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1517(Aug 8th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1472(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound initially gained but gave ground  on  Thursday  as investors digested UK GDP and producer prices  data. U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices declined, though a rise in the cost ​of services suggested inflation could remain elevated.The flat ‌reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1% drop in June, the Labor Department's Bureau ​of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. Britain's economy unexpectedly grew in June as companies enjoyed a respite from the energy price surge caused ‌by the Iran war, the start of the men's soccer World Cup and hot weather, official data showed on Thursday.Gross domestic product rose by 0.3% during the month, putting Britain on course for the strongest growth among the Group of Seven rich economies in the first half of 2026, after being flat ​in May . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3528(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3440(Aug 7th low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3407(50%fib).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday after data showed that producer prices were unchanged in July.The flat reading in the Producer Price Index for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1% drop in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding 0.2%.Other data showed U.S. unemployment claims rose moderately last week, indicating a stable labor market despite July’s unexpected job losses.Meanwhile, a Canadian government source said trade talks with the U.S. were progressing well, with Washington seeking a deal before the August 19 tariff deadline.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was trading 2.2% lower at $81.44 a barrel as signs of weaker global demand competed with renewed concerns over supply disruptions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4054(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4078(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3934(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3920(Lower BB).

USD/JPY:  The dollar initially dipped against yen but recovered ground against yen on Thursday    as investors parsed ‌a softer-than-expected producer price inflation reading. Producer price ​figures came in at 4.7%, below expectations of a 4.9% gain in July. This follows benign July consumer inflation data that strengthened expectations that the Fed would hold ‌interest rates steady ⁠at its next meeting. .Other data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, suggesting that the labor market remains stable despite July's surprise job losses. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.14% to 159.19 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.82 (Aug 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.49(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  157.50(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European shares dipped modestly on Thursday as investors awaited euro zone inflation data, while weaker commodity prices pressured energy and mining stocks despite a strong earnings season.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.56percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.28 percent.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, boosted by gains in heavyweight tech stocks, while softer producer inflation reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September.

Dow Jones closed up by  0.13 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.65% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.81%  percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold fell more than 1% on Thursday as investors took profits after prices hit two-month highs, while U.S. inflation data in line with expectations reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.

Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,354.58 per ounce ​by 12:58 a.m EDT (1658 GMT). Prices touched their highest level since June 5 earlier ​in the session at $4,449.39.

Oil prices settled more than 2% lower on Thursday, reversing a week-long rally as investors focused on weaker global demand and a sharp increase in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent futures fell $1.91, or 2.15%, to settle at $87.07 a barrel, ending a six-session rally, while U.S. WTI crude dropped $2.02, or 2.4%, to $81.25 a barrel after five straight sessions of gains.