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Market Roundup
• Spain GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Spain GDP (YoY) (Q2) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•Eurozone Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Aug) 4.2%, 4.4% previous
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Aug) 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (Aug) 17,646.5B, 17,614.0B previous
•Eurozone Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Aug) 3.1%, 3.2% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.0%, -0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, 1.4% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Aug) 1.6%, 0.6% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug) -1.5%, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 5.1%, 5.1% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) 45.8 forecast, 51.5 previous
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.6% forecast, 4.0% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 47.8 forecast, 51.7 previous
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 3.4% forecast, 3.3% previous
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Sep) 50.9 forecast, 51.9 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jul), -0.37B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jul), 0.99B previous
•17:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 453 forecast, 452 previous
•17:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 595 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as investors remained cautious about developments in the Middle East and surging bond yields.Negotiators are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said this week.Euro zone government bond yields were on track for their seventh consecutive weekly rise as crude prices remained near $100 a barrel and increasingly hawkish signals from central banks pushed up expectations for policy rates.Meanwhile, German consumer sentiment weakened more sharply than expected heading into October, as rising energy prices soured households' income outlook, a survey showed.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1348(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1308(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Friday as advancing US-Iran diplomatic talks in New York lifted sentiment and oil prices fell on ceasefire hopes.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking to the media on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, said Tehran wanted Washington to return to the Memorandum of Understanding "before the midterms."U.S. and Iranian negotiators have been exploring a phased framework involving Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade. Britain's currency was on track to fall 1.2% against the dollar in its biggest one-week fall since May, after declining 1% the previous week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar found buying interest on Friday as the dollar weakened and U.S. Treasury yields moved lower. Attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision on Tuesday, September 29.Markets are pricing a strong probability of a 25-basis-point increase, while recent comments from Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted persistent upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices and domestic demand. The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to $0.703. Investors also monitored developments in the Iran war. US and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased pathout of war that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift Washington's economic blockade of Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7134(Sep 18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7164(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7080 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07072(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday as the yen strengthened after Japan stepped up warnings over potential currency intervention.The move came after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said U.S. President Donald Trump had raised concerns about yen weakness during his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week.Katayama said the comments reaffirmed the shared U.S.-Japan stance that underpinned their coordinated intervention in July. She added that she and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would remain in close contact as policymakers increased warnings over renewed yen weakness.Despite Friday’s gains, the yen remained on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, with markets earlier viewing the Bank of Japan’s rate hike to a 31-year high and its latest guidance as insufficiently hawkish.h. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.83(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.71(Sep24th low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.60(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher but gains remained tempered by continued uncertainty over developments in the Middle East and a sharp rise in global bond yields, which kept investors cautious.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.87percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday but was on track for a weekly loss, as rising US Treasury yields and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on the metal.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $4,303.19 per ounce by 1210 GMT, but was down about 1.7% so far this week. US gold futures rose 1% to $4,339.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday as markets weighed hopes for a potential U.S.-Iran truce against growing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent was down $1.34, or 1.3%, at $105.26 a barrel at 1215 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $1.83, or 1.9%, lower at $92.78 a barrel.
