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Europe Roundup: Euro falls to four-month low on weak German data, European shares retreat, Gold steadies, Oil rises on potential OPEC+ output cuts-February 7th,2020

Market Roundup

• German Dec Current Account Balance n.s.a  29.4B, 24.1B previous

• German Dec Exports (MoM)  0.1%,0.5% forecast, -2.2%  previous

• German Dec Industrial Production (MoM)  -3.5%,-0.2% forecast, 1.2%  previous

• German Dec Trade Balance 19.2B, 18.4B forecast, 18.5B previous

• French Dec Current Account  -0.60B, 0.50B previous

• French Dec Exports 41.9B, 42.1B previous

• French Dec Industrial Production (MoM)  -2.8%,-0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous    

• French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4)    0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous

• UK Jan Halifax House Price Index (MoM)  0.4%,-0.2% forecast, 1.8% previous  
 
• UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 4.1%,3.0% forecast, 4.0% previous

• Italian Dec Retail Sales (YoY)  0.9%,1.0% previous

• Russia Feb Interest Rate Decision  6.00%,6.00% forecast, 6.25% previous

• Brazil Jan CPI (MoM)  0.21%,0.34% forecast, 1.15% previous    

• Brazil Jan CPI (YoY)  4.19%,4.32% forecast, 4.31% previous                

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)  
 
• 13:30 US Jan Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) 3.0% forecast, 2.9% previous 
   
• 13:30 US Jan  Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)  0.3%,0.1% previous

• 13:30 US Jan   Average Weekly Hours  34.3, 34.3 previous

• 13:30 US Jan Government Payrolls  6.0K previous

• 13:30 US Jan Manufacturing Payrolls  -5K forecast, -12K previous

• 13:30 US Jan Nonfarm Payrolls  160K, 145K previous

• 13:30 US Jan Participation Rate  63.1% forecast forecast , 63.2% previous

• 13:30 US Jan Private Nonfarm Payrolls  150K forecast, 139K previous

• 13:30 US Jan Unemployment Rate 3.5% forecast,3.5% previous    

• 13:30 Canada Jan Full Employment Change 38.4K previous    

• 13:30 Canada Jan Part Time Employment Change  -3.2K
    
• 15:00 Canada Jan Ivey PMI  53.3 forecast, 51.9 previous    

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)    

• No significant data

Fxbeat

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro declined against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after German industrial output for December recorded its biggest decline in a decade and strong employment numbers in the United States encouraged investors to buy the dollar. The focus now shifts to non-farm payrolls data, which are expected to confirm that the U.S. labour market is in robust health. The euro fell as low as $1.0948, down 0.3% on the day, and has now lost 1.2% since Monday, putting it on track for its worst week since November.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1008 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1020 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0944  (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0900 (Psychological level).

GBPUSD: Sterling declined against dollar on Friday as investors priced in the risk of Britain not being able to agree on a trade deal with the European Union in the 11 months left of the Brexit transition period. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Britain will not obey the bloc’s regulations, setting a hard stance on the upcoming negotiations. Some analysts say this gives Britain a weaker position against its biggest export market. The pound was down at $1.2933, close to its lowest level in weeks. Against the euro, which has been dragged down by a stronger dollar, sterling traded higher by 0.2% at 84.78 pence.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2974 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3033 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2906 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2897 (Nov 27th low).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday, as investors shifted to riskier currencies while assessing the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak in China, where the death toll continues to climb. The death toll in mainland China reached 636 by the end of Thursday, up 73 from the previous day .Chinese policymakers are readying measures to support their economy jolted by the coronavirus outbreak that is expected to have a devastating impact on first-quarter growth. At( GMT 12:43),Greenback edged higher 0.18% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9763. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9779 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9819 (Nov 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9717 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9700 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen on Friday, as investors remained cautious as they assessed the economic repercussions from the spread of a coronavirus. The virus, which is centred on China, has spread to more than 20 other countries and regions. The U.S. dollar traded at 109.9 yen   on Friday, just below a two-week high reached earlier. For the week, the dollar was on course for a 1.5% gain versus the yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.04 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.46 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.56 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 109.00 (Psychological level). 

Equities Recap

European shares slipped slightly from all-time highs on Friday, as the rising death toll from the coronavirus outbreak and the pace of the spreading infection dulled sentiment.

At (GMT 12:56),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading lower at 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.58 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.33 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices were steady on Friday after two days of gains as share markets lost ground, with the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, showing no signs of slowing down, escalating fears of a broader impact on economic growth.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,566.21 per ounce by 0406 GMT, down about 1.4% for the week. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,569.90.

Oil prices edged higher on Friday on hopes OPEC and other producers may cut their output further amid falling demand for crude as China battles the coronavirus epidemic.

Brent crude  futures rose 30 cents, or 0.6%, to $55.23 a barrel by 0945 GMT, but were heading for a fifth weekly loss due to lingering fears over the impact of the virus.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude   futures were up 21 cents, or 0.4%, at $51.16 a barrel, also heading for a fifth consecutive week of losses.

Treasuries Recap

U.S.: The U.S. Treasuries rallied during Friday’s afternoon session ahead of the country’s labour market report for the month of January, scheduled to be released today by 13:30GMT. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slumped 4 basis points to 1.604 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield plunged nearly 5 basis points to 2.067 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year lost a little over 3 basis points to trade at 1.415 percent.

EUR: The German bunds jumped during European trading session Friday after the country’s industrial production for the month of December  plunged, disappointing market expectations as well, while the trade balance for the similar month offset the fall in bond yields. The German 10-year bond yield, which move inversely to its price, lost 2-1/2 basis points to -0.390 percent, the long-term 30-year yield plunged 3-1/2 basis points to 0.129 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year fell 1 basis point to -0.643 percent.

AUS: The Australian bonds remained flat during Asian session of the last trading day of the week Friday amid a muted trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance amid rise in China’s death tolls from the Coronavirus. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around 1.049 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond traded flat at 1.654 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year also remained steady at 0.752 percent.
 

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