Market Roundup
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,090.1B, -217.5B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 745.6B, -21.3B previous
•Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Jul) 4.7%, 5.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 UK GDP (MoM) (May) 0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
•07:00 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) -0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•07:00 UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (May) 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•07:00 UK Trade Balance (May) -23.10B forecast, -26.05B previous
•07:00 UK Trade Balance Non-EU (May) -13.05B forecast
•07:00 UK Industrial Production (MoM) (May) -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•07:00 UK U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (May) -1.1% forecast, -1.0% previous
•07:00 UK Construction Output (MoM) (May) -0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:00 UK GDP (YoY) (May) 1.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
•07:00 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (May) 1.9% forecast, 1.0% previous
•07:00 UK Industrial Production (YoY) (May) 1.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•07:00 UK Index of Services 0.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
•09:40 Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 3.395% previous
•09:40 Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 2.772% previous
•09:40 Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.835% previous
•10:00 EU Trade Balance (May) 2.8B forecast, -1.0B previous
•10:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (May) 0.32B previous
•10:00 Italian Trade Balance (May) 4.830B forecast, 4.293B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 10:30 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro traded in a narrow range on Thursday as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran kept investors cautious. The U.S. struck Iran's coastal defence and missile installations on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Tehran threatened to curb additional regional energy exports, describing the conflict as an "existential war" with Washington.Brent crude climbed above $85 a barrel on concerns that the escalating Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving worries about inflation.Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices unexpectedly posted their biggest decline in 14 months in June, reinforcing signs that inflation was easing before the latest geopolitical flare-up. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded flat against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the escalating Middle East conflict kept investors cautious.Oil prices extended gains to a fourth session as the U.S. launched two waves of attacks on Iran's coastal defences and missile sites after re-imposing a naval blockade of its ports.U.S. consumer and producer inflation slowed in June, amid a pullback in the cost of energy products, reinforcing evidence that inflation was subsiding before the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict.Investors are now looking out for remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson due to speak later today.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict. The U.S. launched fresh strikes against Iran's coastal military infrastructure and reimposed a naval blockade of its ports.Rising geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher, fueling renewed inflation concerns.Meanwhile, inflation expectations moderated for the third month in a row, easing to 4.7% in July 2026 from 5.5% in June, their lowest level in six months.Markets currently price only a 20% chance of a rate hike in August and around 60% odds by December.Markets are looking to upcoming employment and inflation reports for further guidance on the policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the Japanese yen on Thursday as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. Weaker-than-expected June producer price inflation reinforced the previous day's benign consumer inflation report, prompting markets to slash the probability of a Fed rate increase this month to 10% from 43% earlier.The yen also drew support from comments by Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who said stronger economic growth driven by government policy changes could justify a review of the asset allocation of the nation's state pension funds. Katayama told parliament that the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reviews its portfolio and asset allocation appropriately and in a timely manner each fiscal year.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares slipped on Thursday as chipmakers weakened ahead of TSMC's earnings, while bonds gained after soft U.S. inflation data eased concerns over a near-term Fed rate hike.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 2.83% , KOSPI was down at 6.59 %, China A50 was down at 0.99%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined on Thursday as the ongoing Middle East conflict dampened sentiment, offsetting recent inflation relief and fueling fears that rising oil prices could prompt central banks to raise interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,034.42 per ounce by 0349 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery lost 0.3% to $4,039.90.
Oil prices rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday after fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets heightened fears of renewed conflict and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures climbed 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.28 a barrel by 0026 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.02 a barrel.
