Market Roundup
• Swiss SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) 0.00%, 0.00%forecast,0.00% previous
•Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 6.1%,6.3% forecast,6.3% previous
•Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.58%, 2.38% previous
•Irish CPI (YoY) (Nov) 3.2%,2.9% previous
•Irish CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%,0.5% previous
•Irish HICP (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,950K forecast,1,939K previous
•13:30 US Exports (Sep) 280.80B previous
•13:30 US Imports (Sep) 340.40B previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 220K forecast,191K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 214.75K previous
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Sep) -62.50B forecast,-59.60B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Sep) 60.58B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Sep) 66.91B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Sep) -4.40B forecast,-6.32B previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -170B forecast,-12B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.680% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.620% previous
•17:00 US 30-Year Bond Auction 4.694% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Thursday as market participants digested less-hawkish-than-expected comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following a widely anticipated interest rate cut. On Wednesday, the Fed lowered rates by a quarter-point in an unusually divided vote, signaling it would likely pause further reductions while monitoring the labor market and inflation, which “remains somewhat elevated.The Fed’s updated projections contrast with market expectations for two additional 0.25% cuts in 2026, which would bring the funds rate to around 3.0%. Policymakers, however, foresee only one cut next year and one in 2027, with Wednesday’s move setting the policy range at 3.50%-3.75%. The projections also showed that six policymakers favor no cuts this year and seven expect no further reductions in 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1708(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1737(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1649(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1603(SMA20).
GBP/USD: The pound gained slightly on Thursday as markets grappled with the Fed’s mixed messages. The Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut in a divided vote on Wednesday but signalled that borrowing costs may not fall further as it waits for clearer signs of a cooling labour market and inflation that remains somewhat elevated. While most policymakers expect they will need to cut rates again next year, an unprecedented six officials opposed even Wednesday's quarter-point move. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also declined to offer guidance on the timing of any further cuts. Investors now await U.S. jobs and inflation data for November next week, followed by a detailed third-quarter economic growth report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped from 3-month high on Thursday as investors digested latest Australian labor market figures.Australian employment fell in November by the most in nine months, while annual job growth slowed sharply from earlier in the year further evidence that the labour market is cooling and potentially reducing pressure for a near-term rate hike. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that net employment fell by 23,100 in November, following a 41,200 surge in October. The result sharply missed market expectations for a 20,000 increase. Full-time employment accounted for most of the weakness, dropping by 56,500. Annual job growth slowed to 1.3% in November, down from 3.5% at the start of the year and now trailing the country’s 2% population growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6682(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6703(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6616(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6545(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday as risk-off sentiment combined with a less-hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve outlook unsettled broader markets. The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected rate cut on Wednesday and indicated it still anticipates one more quarter-point reduction in 2026.Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in a potential BoJ rate hike as early as next week, highlighting a sharp contrast to the Fed’s dovish move. In a Dec. 2–9 survey, 90% of economists (63 of 70) predicted the Bank of Japan would lift short-term rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at its upcoming meeting.Following the BOJ’s October meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that early momentum in next spring’s wage negotiations would be a key factor in deciding the timing of any rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.58 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.44 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.55(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Thursday as concerns over tech valuations following Oracle’s disappointing forecast offset relief from the Fed’s unexpectedly dovish remarks.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.56 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Thursday as traders digested the Fed’s split decision on a 25-basis-point rate cut, while silver soared to a fresh record high.
Spot gold fell 0.3%to $4,216.49 per ounce, as of 1248GMT. U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 0.5% to $4,244.40 per ounce.
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as investors turned their attention to ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks while keeping a close watch on the potential repercussions of the U.S. seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker near Venezuela’s coast.
Brent crude futures were down 81 cents, or 1.3%, at $61.40 a barrel at 0904 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 78 cents, also 1.3%, to $57.68 a barrel.
