The euro zone countries have set a very clear ultimatum for the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The Greek government has to submit a request for aid with the ESM and present a far-reaching reform list by Thursday at the latest. The institutions (IMF, EU Commission and ECB) and then the euro group will evaluate the list. On Sunday the heads of government of all EU member states will meet at a special summit to take a decision.
"If no decision is reached Greek national bankruptcy and a Grexit will probably be unavoidable. It may seem as if the euro zone countries are urging Greece to end the negotiations", says Commerzbank.
Jean Claude Juncker for example mentioned that the EU Commission had prepared the scenario of a Grexit in detail. Also the fact that not just the euro zone countries but the whole EU is convening on Sunday and that a discussion about humanitarian aid to Greece in case of a Grexit could then be held is another signal that it is planned that the negotiations will come to an end.
However, it is also in the interest of the Greek government to reach an agreement as soon as possible, says Commerzbank. It will be unable to open the banks before that which will make the situation for the Greek population increasingly difficult. And on 20th July when Athens defaults on a payment to the ECB the banking system would be bankrupt anyway. According to governing council member Ewald Nowotny the ECB would then be unable to provide further liquidity assistance.


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