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Euro area's IP to rebound amid benign inflation

In a relatively quiet week for the euro area, IP, to be released on Monday, is expected to rebound by 0.6% m/m in July, after two consecutive months of decline (consensus: 0.3%). However, euro area inflation remains extremely low, and August headline and core inflation (Wednesday) should be confirmed at 0.2% and 1.0% y/y, respectively, in line with the consensus forecast. 

"We continue to expect the ECB to announce before year-end an extension of the current QE programme beyond September 2016. This view was encouraged by the ECB's recent decision to increase the issue share limit for purchases under the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) from 25% to 33% (subject to case-by-case verification that this would not create blocking minority power), as well as sizeable downward revisions to the ECB's inflation forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively," commented Barclays.

Further material EUR depreciation is expected and Barclays recommends remaining short EURUSD,

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