Euro area official data still a bit soft in 4Q15

The business surveys suggest that the underlying pace of growth remains solid. The official October activity data, however, got off to a softer start in 4Q15. Euro area IP rose 0.6%m/m and is 1.2% ar above the average in 3Q15. Construction output is tracking a similar gain so far, while exports were 1.4% ar below the average in 3Q15. 

Consumer data also disappointed, with retail sales 0.7% ar below the 3Q15 average. At least, car registrations rebounded in November and are now tracking a gain in the current quarter. But, overall, the official activity data point to a 1%q/q, saar GDP increase in 4Q15, compared to 1.75% forecast. 

The strength of the surveys suggests that further acceleration is likely in the official data during November and December. And, in the IP data, the recent disappointment has been concentrated in Germany.