Euro area inflation numbers in spotlight ahead of ECB Governing Council’s Sept meeting

Due Tuesday, 30th Aug are the August flash inflation figures for Germany and Spain with the equivalent data for the euro area. Inflation is probably the most awaited piece of data from the euro area in the coming days ahead of the Governing Council’s next meeting on Sept. 8th.

Upcoming data (inflation, business confidence, unemployment) in the eurozone in the coming days may signal whether more stimulus is needed to sustain the recovery and revive price growth amid potential fallout from Brexit.

Euro area inflation on a yearly basis has ticked higher every month since April and expectations are for the trend to continue into August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the rate rose to 0.3 percent in August from 0.2 percent the previous month. That would be the highest since January but still far from the ECB’s goal of just below 2 percent.

Despite ECB's massive stimulus (1.2 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) of bond purchases and a negative deposit rate), policy makers agreed at their July 20-21 meeting that no clear upward trend in inflation was yet visible.

"There are risks related to the geopolitical situation in a number of countries. The risks to inflation also seem to be skewed to the downside.” said Aline Schuiling, a senior economist at ABN Amro Bank.