EUR/USD Smashes to 1.1930 High as Dollar Wilts on Chinese Treasury Caution – Bullish While Above 1.1830

EUR/USD gained sharply as China Quietly Eases Off Treasuries. It hits an intraday high of 1.19296 and is currently trading around 1.19010.  Intraday trend remains bullish as long as support 1.1830 holds. 

On February 9, 2026, Chinese regulators quietly instructed major commercial banks to cap new purchases of US Treasuries and gradually trim existing holdings in their investment portfolios (totaling ~$298 billion in USD assets), citing heightened concentration risks and US debt market volatility, according to Bloomberg. The guidance excludes China's official state-held Treasuries (~$683 billion) and includes no mandatory sales targets or deadlines, positioning the move as defensive risk management rather than aggressive divestment. Markets responded modestly but directionally: the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.3–0.5% to around 107.8, 10-year Treasury yields ticked 3–5 basis points higher to 4.35% on perceived supply pressure, and short-term dollar softness provided tailwinds for gold and other debasement hedges. While orderly reductions could exert gradual downward pressure on the USD over time—potentially supporting US exports—the Federal Reserve's buying capacity and robust domestic demand are expected to absorb most of the impact without sparking disorderly selling or panic.

The pair is holding above the 55 EMA, 200 EMA, and 365 EMA in the 4-hour chart. Near-term resistance is seen at 1.1935, a break above this may push the pair to targets of  1.2000/1.2085/1.2135/1.21995. On the downside, support is seen at 1.18890; any violation below will drag the pair to 1.18290/1.1765/1.1700/1.1660.

Market Indicators and Trading Strategy

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)-  Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) - Bullish

 It is good to buy on dips around 1.1890 with a stop-loss at 1.1835 for a target price of 1.200/1.2085./1.2148.