The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to adopt its first deposit rate hike in the first half of 2019, followed by a very gradual rate normalization of all policy rates. The background picture for the ECB is an ongoing recovery with underlying inflation well below target. The next reduction of the asset purchase programme is to be announced in the autumn and to come into effect in January 2018.
Further, the net asset purchases by the central bank is expected to end by summer 2018. While a policy rate hike before the quantitative easing ends is possible, it is not the baseline scenario.
Relief following the French elections and a big rebound in Euro-area core inflation have boosted a rebound in bond yields. After the French vote, the focus has shifted back to Euro-area inflation developments and the ECB.
Yields have move upside potential, as the ECB will gradually assume a more hawkish stance and a tapering of the bond purchases looms. Longer out, continued ECB presence in the bond markets for a long time coupled with subdued core inflation developments will still keep yields at low levels historically seen.
"We expect the ECB to change the forward guidance in the June meeting by dropping the no more reference to 'lower rates'", Nordea Markets commented in its latest research report.


RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal
Jerome Powell Attends Supreme Court Hearing on Trump Effort to Fire Fed Governor, Calling It Historic
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX
Trump’s Inflation Claims Clash With Voters’ Cost-of-Living Reality
Japanese Pharmaceutical Stocks Slide as TrumpRx.gov Launch Sparks Market Concerns
Trump Lifts 25% Tariff on Indian Goods in Strategic U.S.–India Trade and Energy Deal
Dollar Near Two-Week High as Stock Rout, AI Concerns and Global Events Drive Market Volatility
Lee Seung-heon Signals Caution on Rate Hikes, Supports Higher Property Taxes to Cool Korea’s Housing Market
Vietnam’s Trade Surplus With US Jumps as Exports Surge and China Imports Hit Record
Trump Signs Executive Order Threatening 25% Tariffs on Countries Trading With Iran
Yen Slides as Japan Election Boosts Fiscal Stimulus Expectations




