ECB looks for a weaker euro, Fed doesn't want USD to appreciate too notably

US Federal Reserve's rate hike timings are almost confirmed by the optimistic comments by various FOMC members that a rate hike is likely in December 2015. Fed's moves after the rate hike are gaining attention now.

There were cautious comments in that regards. While James Bullard confronted the effects of interest rates in the US being almost fixed at a conference on the subject of "Rethinking Monetary Policy", even though he is in favour of a speedy normalisation of monetary policy, Charles Evans was more outspoken. 

In his view the rate hikes should be very cautious and even in late 2016 interest rates might well remain below 1%. Of course comments of this nature do not help USD even if it should not be overlooked that so far the market has almost consistently underestimated the speed of Fed rate hikes. 

ECB's President Mario Draghi presented an opposing ECB view meanwhile. The December meeting might announce the extension of QE till September 2016. The volume of purchases would be stretched, or more securities would be added.

These comments weigh on Euro, however ECB hardly disguises the fact that it welcomes a weaker euro. 

"In the end the fact that any EUR weakness this created was overcome during the course of the day following the speeches of Draghi's US colleagues is the result of a simple constellation: the ECB is looking for a weaker euro, the Fed does not want the USD to appreciate too notably", says Commerzbank in a research note. 

This does not exactly result in an empty set, but the cut set is not exactly large either. The cut set does contain a slow, moderate fall in EUR-USD.